Above the scrabbling, creative world of game development swim the leviathans of the tech oceans, ghosting above it all with their apetite for acquisitions, deep pockets and 20-year investment horizons. These leviathans have their teeth firmly embedded in the gaming value chain: Google (Google Play Store), Tencent (Wegame, Epic), Apple (App Store), Facebook (Gameroom), Amazon (AWS, Lumberyard, Twitch), Microsoft (X-Box) live extremely well off the profits from the positions they have been taking for over a decade.
One stand out case is how Apple effectively single-handedly created and then grew mobile gaming market that has gone from zero to hundreds of billions of dollars over a 10 year period, nourishing the production of hundreds of new games every month, bringing gaming to even more customers, with new revenue models. Now, having created the mobile gaming market with these stores, the giants like Apple, Google and TenCent are they are now raking in risk-free royalties and commissions on all these sales with an unchallenged business model that has changed completely how games are created, marketed and monetised. It is a great story, investment, innovation, new market places, giving life to 1500 games a month and billions of dollars of revenue, spread over a network of publishers, suppliers and creators.
Another example is Amazon, if you thought it made money selling things, you missed the AWS story: zdnet.com/AWS
As well as own in-house creations like the App Store and AWS, here is a list of some of the largest investments where these leviathans have swallowed up gaming fish.
[table id=2 /]
But that is only part of the story, these companies and the other tech giants are staking out claims in gaming territory to protect their market share, develop more demand for their existing services as well as creating new income streams.
[table id=3 /]
Today the talk is about Fortnite’s amazing earnings, $300m A MONTH, with the game only becoming available on Apple devices in Q2 2018. But the smart money came from TenCent in 2013, paying $330m for 40% of Epic, how good was that investment?
These dynamics are a challenge for the Nikeforos investment portfolio: on one hand the Leviathans are a fantastic cash-rich source of capital; deep pockets that will happily buy up anything that might have value at valuations that the company on its own does not justify. On the other hand the big tech companies’ gaming profits are hard to access for a portfolio like Nikeforos, which is frustrating if our thesis is that this is where the profitability is going to continue to be in the future.
So far the Nikeforos portfolio has resisted getting into the biggest tech companies as the gaming profits are so diluted by the rest of the business. Where the portfolio has had success is with the mid-level companies that have listed and are floating around “there for the taking”. For example EA Sports, Take Two, Ubisoft and Activision are squarely within the sights of the Leviathans – Microsoft, Tencent etc, something that will support valuations and ensure they have access to cheap capital at any time. The stock performance as a result has been excellent, even if the profits are not always there to support them! But that is the subject for another article.
/Richard
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